NPV and Capital Budgeting in India — A Practical Guide for Business Owners

## Why NPV is the gold standard for investment decisions NPV directly answers: "Does this investment create or destroy value?" — which is the only question that matters. Unlike payback period (ignores returns after recovery) and ROI (ignores time value), NPV accounts for both the timing and magnitude of all cash flows. ## Manufacturing expansion example Paperboard manufacturer considering new machine: - Investment: ₹25 lakh - Year 1: ₹4 lakh (ramp-up) - Year 2: ₹7 lakh - Year 3: ₹8 lakh - Year 4: ₹8 lakh - Year 5: ₹8 lakh + ₹3 lakh scrap value - Discount rate: 14% (bank loan rate) NPV = -25 + 4/1.14 + 7/1.30 + 8/1.48 + 8/1.69 + 11/1.93 = -25 + 3.5 + 5.4 + 5.4 + 4.7 + 5.7 = **₹4.7 lakh positive NPV** Proceed — investment creates ₹4.7 lakh in value above the 14% loan rate. ## How to find the right discount rate for Indian SMEs - **Bank loan-financed:** Use loan rate + 2–3% (risk premium) - **Equity-financed:** Use opportunity cost + business risk (usually 15–20%) - **Government schemes (MSME, MUDRA):** Lower cost of capital (8–10%) ## The terminal value problem Real projects run beyond 5 years. For ongoing businesses, add a terminal value in Year 5: TV = Year 5 cash flow × (1 + growth rate) / (discount rate - growth rate). At 3% perpetual growth and 14% discount: TV = ₹8L × 1.03 / 0.11 = ₹74.9 lakh. This dramatically increases NPV for long-lived assets.