FIRE Calculator for the US — Your Number, Timeline, and Portfolio Strategy

## The Trinity Study and the 4% rule The 1998 Trinity Study analysed US retirement portfolios over 30-year periods from 1926–1995. A 50/50 stock/bond portfolio with 4% initial withdrawal (adjusted for inflation) succeeded 95% of the time. This birthed the "4% rule." ## Sequence of returns risk — FIRE's biggest threat A market crash in your first few retirement years is far more damaging than the same crash in year 20. This is because early withdrawals sell units at depressed prices, which don't recover when the market bounces back. Mitigation strategies: 1. Hold 1–2 years of expenses in cash — draw from this during downturns 2. Reduce withdrawals during bad years (flexible spending) 3. Have a small part-time income in early retirement (Barista FIRE) ## The FIRE portfolio Standard FIRE portfolio: 70–90% stocks (Vanguard Total Stock Market, international funds), 10–30% bonds. Index funds only — keep expense ratios below 0.15%. Rebalance annually.